Jon Fitch (-115) vs. Diego Sanchez (-115)

Jon Fitch is one of the most underrated fighters in the welterweight division, and in all of the UFC for that matter. He is undefeated in his last thirteen fights dating back to July of 2003 (which is right after he dropped from LHW to MW and joined AKA in San Jose). While Fitch has never fought anyone of Diego’s caliber, he has beaten some talented welterweights such as Josh Burkman, Thiago Alves and Shonie Carter. He has a strong wrestling background with good jiu-jitsu and striking ability. He’s been on a tear and has shown no signs of slowing down.

Diego Sanchez needs little introduction to anyone with even a passing interest in MMA. Since winning the middleweight division of the first season of The Ultimate Fighter, his record has been win-after-win against some of the best fighters around. Until his loss to Josh Koscheck, he seemed untouchable and on a short track to a title fight. The Diego we saw against Koscheck looked uninspired. While we later found out he had a staph infection, Diego himself admitted that he wasn’t at the top of his mental game and had even been considering retirement.

As good as Fitch is, the outcome of this match is largely dependant upon which Diego shows up. If we see the Diego that demolished Joe Riggs, then Fitch is in for a tough fight. If Diego is anything less than 100% ready mentally, then I think Fitch will have his way with him. My gut tells me that Fitch has a better chance here, since I still have big questions about Diego, but my brain is telling me that this is a 50-50 fight and I should stay away from betting on it. The only way I see myself making a play here will be if Fitch somehow comes up to even money, or if Diego looks less than 100% at the weigh-ins. I’m calling this Fitch by unanimous decision, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Diego won by an early TKO.

Mauricio Rua (-295) vs. Forrest Griffin (+235)

"Shogun" Rua may be new to the UFC, but many consider him to be the top light heavyweight in all MMA. He’s beaten the best of the best in PRIDE (Rampage, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Kevin Randleman and Ricardo Arona are just a few). Shogun is truly the total package; he is possibly the best pound-for-pound striker in MMA, backed by top-notch jiu-jitsu and great cardio. Everyone expects him to be on the fast track to a title shot.

Forrest Griffin one of the most popular fighters in the UFC, and with good reason. He likes to bang, and he’s been a part of some of the best fights in the history of the UFC. Despite his knockout loss to Keith Jardine, Forrest can take a lot of punishment, which is a necessity as he’s been known to be a bit of a slow starter. In his last fight, Forrest looked markedly different from his previous fights. He would move in, fire a few shots, and then step back, instead of his usuall all-out slugfest style. While part of this was likely due to being a bit gunshy after his knockout loss to Jardine, I think this was largely due to him joining Randy Couture’s camp. Randy is the master of putting together an effective gameplan for a fight. Forrest fought a smart fight against Ramirez and won easily.

On paper, this fight should be all Shogun. I think everyone expects Rua to come in and mow down the whole LHW division, starting with Griffin. Frankly, I can’t argue with that position. If you look at Forrest’s fights in the UFC as a whole, then I think the expectation would be that Forrest would try to go toe-to-toe with Shogun and get manhandled. I saw a big change in Forrest’s fighting style in his last fight, and I think he will come in with a smart gameplan for Shogun. I also think Forrest’s ground game is underestimated. (Not too many people are aware that he won a 4-round decision against Jeff Monson early on in his career.)

At +235, the line is showing that Forrest is expected to win just under 30% of the time. I think this is fairly close to where I would place the line, but I still see some value on Forrest as an underdog bet here. This line has been moving a bit, and I think at +250 or better, then Forrest starts to become a very attractive option. I’d still call this Shogun by TKO in the second round, though.

Chuck Liddell (-450) vs. Keith Jardine (+300) 

What can I say about Chuck Liddell? He’s arguably been the most dominant fighter in UFC history. He’s coming off a loss against Rampage Jackson, who is at the absolute top of his game right now. Chuck is expected to come back and start tearing through everyone again on his way back to the top of the food chain. He’s virtually unmatched as a striker and has great takedown defense.

Keith Jardine was looking like he was on his way to a title shot after TKO-ing Forrest Griffin, but he looked very beatable against Houston Alexander. While you can make an argument that he lost to Alexander because he didn’t take the fight seriously, Alexander has a similar fighting style to Liddell and Jardine just looked outmatched to me. In my opinion, Jardine also would have lost the fight against Gouveia if Wilson hadn’t run out of gas late in the fight. Jardine has potential, but I think he’s way out of his league against Chuck right now.

While I see little chance of Chuck losing this fight, Jardine has heavy hands and one slip by Chuck can lead to an upset. I don’t see this fight as enough of a "gimme" to consider making a move on Chuck as such a heavy favorite. At +300, I don’t see value in Jardine as an underdog here either. I’m going to keep my money out of this one, but I call it Chuck by TKO in the first round.