Champ: Randy Couture

Top Contenders:
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Brandon Vera
Tim Sylvia
Andrei Arlovski
Gabriel Gonzaga
Cheick Kongo

A little less than a year ago, the heavyweight division made a drastic turn from being one of the weakest weight classes in the UFC to one of the most promising. Over the last 6 months or so, a lot of the most promising additions to the division have fallen short of expectations. Heath Herring has been a disaster. I’ve already covered the Cro Cop disaster in great lengths. And even Big Nog looked pretty beatable against Herring. Hell, Herring probably could have finished Minotauro if he hadn’t stood him up.

Back in March, no one gave Randy Couture a chance against Tim Sylvia. At this point, he’s the clear-cut top talent in this weight class. Based on the lackluster performance by most of the top competition in their recent fights, there are few opponents who look like they can provide a real challenge to Randy right now. With Couture healing from a broken arm, he’s not set to fight again until early 2008 (right now it looks like a card on Super Bowl weekend).

If Brandon Vera beats Tim Sylvia at UFC 77, then he is the likely frontrunner for the next title shot against Couture. Vera was actually slated to fight Sylvia for the title back in March, but he got tied up in a lenghthy contract dispute with the UFC. If he continues his aggressive, dominant ways then he probably has the best chance against Randy of all the contenders in this weight class.

If Sylvia wins against Vera, he’s not necessarily a shoe-in for an immediate title shot. His conservative approach to his last 3 fights hasn’t exactly won him any fans recently. Still, with few other options for early February, he may get a shot if he beats Vera in impressive fashion.

The main reason I don’t see Big Nog stepping right into a title shot is the recent rumor that he may be fighting Cheick Kongo at UFC 79 in late December. The winner of that fight would likely not be available for the first title defense of 2008 if it is indeed scheduled for Super Bowl weekend. Still, if this match does happen it would likely confer #1 contender status on the victor. Nogueira is arguably already the top contender, and a win against a fighter at this level should instantly jump Kongo to the top of the weight class as well.

Andrei Arlovski has only fought twice in the past year since his back-to-back losses to Tim Sylvia. His conservative approach in his victory over Fabricio Werdum in April surely did not resemble the dominant Andrei Arlovski of old, but it was a decisive victory regardless. With no recent or rumored upcoming fights for Arlovski, there is a bit of a question mark for what is next for him. Still, should Sylvia defeat Vera at UFC 77 (especially if it is a less-than-impressive decision) then Arlovski is one of the few top contenders that would be available for a title match in February and could see himself in a title match.

Despite his loss to Couture, Gabriel Gonzaga is still a major factor in this division. Cro Cop and Frank Mir are both in a rebuilding phase at this point in their careers, but either could become a factor in the HW division with a couple of decisive wins. Mir has already taken a step in that direction, with an impressive win against Antoni Hardonk at UFC 74.

At this point, the heavyweight weight class is in OK shape, but could still use an infusion of some top talent. Fedor Emilianenko is still a free agent after Zuffa’s purchase of Pride, and would be a huge boost to this division. Josh Barnett would also be an fantastic addition to this weight class. With no clear-cut heir to Couture, the UFC could stand to beef up the competition in this division.